USA ahead of Trump comeback: radical transformation into an autocracy looms

In the US presidential election in November 2024, candidate Trump looks set to make an unhindered "march through". This is indicated not only by his dominant position in the Republican Party, but also by the direct comparison with the incumbent president and Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden. Current legal proceedings will not change this, as they will ultimately be decided by the conservative US Supreme Court. Trump coming to power again would have serious consequences, not only for the USA, but also for Europe and the global economy. "Trump's ambitions this time, compared to his first term, go much further. He is planning a massive expansion of power; preparations for this are already in full swing," says Dr. Heinz-Werner Rapp, founder and head of the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute, in a current analysis of the effects and risks of a possible second term of Donald Trump as US president.

Radical restructuring of the political system planned

Trump himself had sent a clear message with statements that he wanted to act as a "dictator" on the first day after his re-election. Behind this is the openly declared goal of bringing the majority of US authorities and institutions, above all the judiciary, under his direct control with a massive "power grab". Corresponding plans to abruptly replace a large number of civil servants with Trump loyalists and to prosecute political opponents have been drawn up by a network of right-wing conservative supporters for some time. "Trump wants to transform US democracy into a customized autocracy; America could soon change more than at any time in the past 150 years," warns Rapp.

Trump benefits from massive political division

Trump's inexplicable popularity among US voters must be seen in the context of an extreme polarization between conservative, liberal and left-wing forces in the US political spectrum. This has resulted in an increasingly heated and confrontational environment that provides an ideal breeding ground for populist escalation and radical politics. Trump knows how to exploit this mood like no other. An acute aggravation of the political climate can already be expected over the course of the month-long election campaign. "The USA is now more divided than ever before, and an alarming 85% of US citizens are in favor of a partial or complete restructuring of US democracy," explains Rapp.

Far-reaching global impact

The return of a Trump presidency would also bring back many of the geo-economic and geopolitical problems that were already felt during his first term in office. Europe and China in particular would have to reckon with a real economic war again, which could have serious consequences for China - given its current increased fragility. Europe could expect massive pressure from "Trump reloaded", which would not only be exerted via trade policy - keyword punitive tariffs - but above all via Trump's open threat to withdraw the USA from NATO and other global regulatory systems. Europe would then be left to its own devices in geostrategic terms.

Increasing risks for entrepreneurs and investors

If the system of checks and balances, which has largely ensured the separation of powers in the US to date, were to be undermined by a "coup from the right", this would not only jeopardize US democracy. Entrepreneurs and investors from abroad would also have to completely reassess the risks in the USA. "The prospect of Donald Trump's re-election exacerbates the expectation of increasing unpredictability and unreliability of the US as a partner, both in economic relations and as a military protecting power. Although nervousness is increasing in some cases, Europe and Germany still seem completely unprepared for this," says Rapp, explaining the medium to long-term risk scenarios in the USA. 

With the current analysis "'Trump reloaded' - Impending transformation of the USA into a presidential dictatorship", the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute continues its series of detailed studies on political risks in the USA. The paper has been published by the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute as "Cognitive Comment" and is available in German for download on this page.